In short: The 2026–27 Winter Finch Forecast, posted by the Finch Research Network on September 25, 2026, expects a mixed winter. Tree-seed crops are good in the Northeast, so Pine Siskins, Red Crossbills and some Evening Grosbeaks should be found across eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeastern US, mostly in the woods rather than at feeders. It doesn't expect big finch flights into the Southeast.
Key facts
- This is the 28th annual Winter Finch Forecast. The first was posted to birding email lists in 1999. This year's was written by Tyler Hoar and posted on September 25, 2026.
- Seed crops are good from central Ontario east to the Maritimes and the northeastern US, and from British Columbia to Alaska. From western Manitoba to Alberta they are mostly poor.
- It expects a sizable Pine Siskin irruption in the northeastern states, and Type 2 Red Crossbills moving east from the West. It doesn't expect big finch irruptions in the southeastern states.
Facts checked: October 2, 2026.
What the Winter Finch Forecast is
The finches of the northern forest, the band of spruce, fir, pine and birch that runs across Canada, get through the winter mostly on tree seeds and berries. Seed crops rise and fall from year to year and place to place. When food runs short, the birds move, sometimes far south into the US. A winter when unusually many northern birds come south is called an irruption.
Each year, the forecast pulls together reports of tree-seed crops, sightings and recordings from birders, naturalists, biologists and foresters across Canada and the northern US, and predicts where each finch is likely to winter.
It's a forecast, not a promise, and it says so. It calls redpolls harder to predict than they were 15 to 20 years ago, and notes that last winter's expected redpoll invasion never really came.
This winter, bird by bird
| Bird | What the forecast expects | Where to look, what to offer |
|---|---|---|
| Pine Siskin | A sizable irruption held in the northeastern states; a small to moderate flight to the Southeast is possible | Nyjer in sock or silo feeders, black oil sunflower in tube feeders |
| Red Crossbill | Good numbers across the Northeast, with Type 2s arriving from the West and more as winter goes on | Pines and spruces heavy with cones |
| White-winged Crossbill | Mostly in the far West and far East; a small to moderate push in the East; scattered flocks around the Great Lakes | Spruces with cones, including planted ones in towns |
| Evening Grosbeak | Small to medium flocks in the Great Lakes and the Northeast; a small move south to southern New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts is quite possible | Black oil sunflower on platform feeders; maples and ashes still holding seeds |
| Purple Finch | Many in eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the Northeast; any flight farther south likely small and late | Black oil sunflower |
| Redpoll | Mostly staying in Canada; perhaps a small flight in the western Great Lakes | Birches, weedy fields, Nyjer and black oil sunflower |
| Pine Grosbeak | Not much of a flight; a few in the border states | Crabapples and mountain-ash berries, even in towns; sunflower on platform or hopper feeders |
The forecast also covers three birds that often move with the finches. It expects an above-average Blue Jay flight along the north shores of Lakes Ontario and Erie (Hawk Ridge, Minnesota, counted over 13,000 on September 16). After last winter's big Red-breasted Nuthatch flight to the Gulf Coast states, it doesn't expect one to the Southeast this year. Bohemian Waxwings should reach the eastern border states, but little farther.
Where and when to look
In the Northeast and around the Great Lakes, go where the cones are. Crops of eastern white pine and northern white cedar are very good; spruce and hemlock vary, with fair to good crops in many areas. The forecast expects siskins, crossbills and even Purple Finches to be in the forests more than at feeders this year.
Crossbills shift as the winter goes on. At first, the forecast expects Type 2 Red Crossbills to lead in the western Great Lakes and Type 12 in the northeastern US, with more Type 2s spreading east later. If numbers build, some may move down the coast late in winter, to Long Island, Cape May and Delaware.
Pine Siskins may stay a while. The forecast points back to 2023–24, the last winter with an eastern white pine crop this good: siskins were plentiful from January into spring.
In towns, check crabapples and mountain-ash for Pine Grosbeaks, planted spruces for White-winged Crossbills, and birches for redpolls.
Farther south, the forecast expects a quiet year. The best chances are Pine Siskins, perhaps a few Purple Finches late in the winter, and a few Type 1 Red Crossbills in the mountains of West Virginia and North Carolina.
At your feeders
- Black oil sunflower suits most of these birds: Evening and Pine Grosbeaks (on a platform feeder), Purple Finches and siskins.
- Nyjer seed in a sock or silo feeder suits siskins and redpolls.
- Suet and peanuts bring in Red-breasted Nuthatches.
- Keep it clean. The Finch Research Network says Pine Siskins are especially prone to salmonellosis, a disease that spreads where birds crowd together. It suggests washing feeders with dish soap, then a 15-minute soak in 9 parts water to 1 part bleach, at least monthly. If you see sick birds, take the feeders down for a few weeks so the flock spreads out.
How to report what you see
- eBird. The forecast suggests following the finches there and on the Finch Research Network's site. Add your own sightings to a checklist.
- Red Crossbill recordings. The crossbill types can usually be told apart only by their flight calls. A smartphone recording, added to an eBird checklist or sent to the Finch Research Network, can be identified to type; the forecast explains how.
- Project FeederWatch. A count of the birds at your feeders, from November through April. The project says its counts show the timing and extent of winter finch irruptions. Here's how FeederWatch works.
- The Christmas Bird Count, December 14 to January 5. Any finches your group finds on count day go into the count: how to join a count.
A good winter for lifers?
A lifer is a species you see for the first time. If you live in the Northeast or around the Great Lakes, or can visit, this could be your winter for a Red Crossbill, a White-winged Crossbill, a Pine Siskin or an Evening Grosbeak. Farther south, the forecast is more modest, so a lifer may mean a trip north.
One note for your list: since 2024, Common and Hoary Redpoll count as one species, Redpoll. More in the redpoll lump.
When you get one, write down the date and the place: they're what make a life list worth looking back on, and what a Birdfolio prints beside every bird.
Questions people ask
When does the Winter Finch Forecast come out?
Once a year, before winter. The 2026–27 forecast, by Tyler Hoar for the Finch Research Network, a nonprofit, was posted on September 25, 2026. It's the 28th; the first came out in 1999.
Will Evening Grosbeaks come to my feeder this winter?
Maybe, if you live in the Great Lakes region or the Northeast. The forecast expects flocks there, and a small move south into southern New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts would not surprise it.
Does the forecast cover the western US?
Only in passing. It focuses on eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeastern US. For the West, it notes good seed crops from British Columbia to Alaska, and a widespread pine failure in the interior West that sent Type 2 Red Crossbills east from July and August.
Birdfolio is not affiliated with eBird, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology or iNaturalist.